The Department of Health and Aged Care is predicting that by 2024-25, there will be a shortage of 39,738 registered nurses and personal care workers due to new regulations coming in on 1 July 2023, according to its internal “Hot Issues Brief”.

The numbers are lower than the Department was predicting last year, and are continuing to drift lower.

A spokesperson for the Aged Care Minister, Anika Wells, said, “The latest estimates of aged care workforce show the overall gap between the supply and demand for workers is closing.

“For example, in 2023-24, the forecast gap in the number of RNs needed has reduced from 11,700 to 8,400 and for Personal Care Workers this has reduced from 13,700 to 13,300.”

A spokesperson for the Department said it’s estimated that 80% of aged care facilities already have an RN on 24/7, with around 5% of facilities will be eligible for the 24/7 RN exemption.

The Department expects more than 6,000 jobs will be filled by migration, the impact of the Work Value Case 15% pay rise, reduced turnover, and other Government programs, such as the Workforce Advisory Service, the Home Care Workforce Support Program and the Aged Care Transition to Practice Program.

However, those gains will not be enough to fill the workforce gap.

From 1 July 2023, Registered Nurses will be required to be on site 24/7 and there will be a requirement to deliver 200 minutes of direct care from 1 October this year, increasing to 215 minutes on 1 October 2024.