The advisory firm is flagging a year of “opportunity and change” ahead for the aged care sector with an increase in transactions tempered by concerns about regulatory reforms.
The 18-page Board Pack, which cover the second quarter of 2025, states the appetite for acquisitions remains strong, with Pacific Equity Partners’ $1 billion investment in Opal HealthCare the latest deal to be announced.
However, there are some storm clouds on the horizon.
Ansell Strategic points out while care minute delivery in residential aged care rose by 6.5% (pictured below) in the Q1 FY25, only 45% of aged care providers are meeting the targets (pictured above).
A warning from the Aged Care Minister Anika Wells in October last year has resulted in the Aged Care Quality and Safety Commission (ACQSC) increasingly targeting operators that fall short on care minutes.
With the Government set to cut AN-ACC funding for providers in MM1 (metropolitan) areas that don’t meet the targets from 1 April 2026, Ansell Strategic notes that this change is significantly more impacted by total care minutes than RN minutes.
“Homes meeting their total care minutes can expect a minimum of $28.84 at current AN-ACC prices, even if they fall significantly short on RN minutes,” the report reads.
“Conversely, providers meeting their RN minutes but less than 85% of their care minutes would only receive a supplement of $2.80.”
The report also underlines concerns around the impact of the Higher Everyday Living Fee (HELF) replacing additional and extra services from 1 July – a significant source of additional revenue for operators.
In addition, the Board Pack provides a detailed snapshot of the wider regulatory, operational, compliance, funding and financing, and workforce changes impacting the sector.
You can download the Board Pack here.
Ansell Strategic’s Managing Director Cam Ansell will also be speaking at the LEADERS SUMMIT in Sydney, next month so don’t miss out on your spot – register here.
