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Government’s own modelling: aged care short of 17,500 nurses within 12 years

2 min read

The Australian Government quietly released the results of its Nursing Supply and Demand Study this week, revealing the nursing workforce is growing in Australia, but not quickly enough to keep up with the demands of an ageing population, a situation that is already putting pressure on both the health system and the existing nurse workforce.

The Government developed the nursing supply and demand model to provide an evidence base for local, state and national workforce and service planning.

The model makes projections for the supply and demand of nurses (Nurse Practitioners, Registered Nurses (RNs) and Enrolled Nurses (ENs) until 2035 across both the public and private sectors, and at national, state and Modifed Monash levels. Predictions are made from the starting point of nothing being done to address supply and demand in the nurse workforce.

For aged care nurses, there is projected to be an undersupply of 17,551 FTE nurses by 2035, including the 24/7 RN and mandatory care minutes requirements.

For all nurses across Australia, there is projected to be an undersupply of 70,707 FTE by 2035 which will require around 79,473 nurses to fill the gap, because some nurses don't work full time.

“The nurse shortage throughout Australia is impacting on the ability of many aged care providers to meet the 24/7 RN requirement and mandated care minutes," Aged and Community Care Providers Association (ACCPA) General Manager Policy Advocacy Roald Versteeg told The Weekly SOURCE. 

"The problem is worse in regional, rural and remote Australia where providers experience significant and ongoing challenges attracting and retaining an aged care workforce.

“Many are paying high costs for agency staff to meet their legislative requirements, which is not sustainable. This is especially the case if they need to also rely on agency staff when their care minute targets increase in October."

Roald said ACCPA was instrumental in gaining greater recognition of ENs in nurse care minutes, and welcomes the development of a virtual nursing framework in aged care.

"ACCPA also runs a transition to aged care nursing program to help attract nurses to the sector," Roald said.

ACCPA is advocating for the creation of a specific visa for skilled migrants, HECS incentives for aged care workers to undertake further training, and increased funding for capital projects to support housing of regional aged care workers to address the nurse shortage in aged care.


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