The Government is not equipped to deliver a clear-cut plan to address the doubling of demand over the fixed supply of home care and residential aged care – and the sector will need to fill this leadership gap, the DCM Group CEO has advised over 570 executives at the 2025 LEADERS SUMMIT.
Delivering the opening presentation on Tuesday (18 March), Chris presented factual support demonstrating that the number of Australians turning 82, being average entry age into home care, will increase by 119% by 2029, just five years away – while for residential care, demand will increase by 49% over the supply of beds, according to DCM Group’s calculations (pictured below).
Chris argued that given the shortage of aged care beds – and decreasing number of direct care hours currently being delivered under the home care system – older Australians will increasingly see retirement villages as a ‘safe harbour’ for care and support.
The conclusion is that retirement villages will provide the aged care beds that the residential sector cannot, resulting in up to half of the 200,000 ‘village beds’ being aged care beds by 2030.
Legislative changes – like those being proposed in Victoria – will also make it more difficult for operators to shift residents to residential aged care.
Wellness and technology essential to future village model
Chris posited that technology and Hospital in the Home partners will be key for operators to meet their growing duty of care to their residents.
He also pointed to Denmark, where a focus on early intervention and prevention – legislating in 1996 that anyone over the age of 75 must undertake a health assessment to determine what services they may need.
“We must get in earlier and prevent the decline to frailty,” he emphasised. “The average time is nine months in a residential aged care – if we can delay that by three months, we free up a third more beds.”
Chris was also joined on stage by former COTA Chief Executive and former Interim Inspector-General of Aged Care Ian Yates AM, who noted that Government decisions, including aged care, are typically influenced by Treasury and the Department of Finance – and they are concerned about the long-term integrity of the Budget.
As a result, aged care is unlikely to regain the same level of Government focus seen in recent years.
“We had our first and only, in several decades, ‘aged care’ election in 2020 – [we will not] have an aged care election in a couple of months,” Ian stated.
“Maintaining our vision … is going to be a major challenge in the next term of Government, and it has to be addressed from a concerted strategic effort outside, because it won’t be done inside.”
The message?
There needs to be a clear, five-year strategy for the sector, in collaboration with the Government, to reshape ageing support.
The sector understands the ageing journey for senior Australians and must take a proactive role in driving this strategy to reduce the acuity trend. Chris asked, can we reduce the average time in residential aged care by three months, meaning we need 33% less aged care beds?
“Government is not going to be here to save us because they have other challenges,” underlined Chris.
“As [IRT CEO] Pat Reid (pictured above) says, solutions from all parties are required to keep aged care sustainable.
“We have to think like leaders, develop a strategy and execute.”