We have been talking about this for some time, but now others are waking up to the significant calamity emerging for village operators.
CBRE has just released its 2024 Seniors Living Report which states that (over the last three to four years) “in reality the supply of aged care beds has actually declined due to the sale of numerous vacant assets outpacing the right of supply.”
As they say in the featured quote, “The burning question is, where will our ageing population live?”
In 2021, a net 890 aged care beds were built nationally; in 2022, it was 1,550. Most aged care homes are now at 95% occupancy. The Baby Boomers start hitting 80 from 2026.
So here’s a question: if no aged care beds are available, how does a retirement village owner physically move a resident with advanced dementia or high acuity out of the village?
It has always been difficult but in the coming years, it will be increasingly impossible.
How does a village operator morally face this challenge? How do you coerce a person to leave their home to most likely a place well outside of what they want, such as an aged care home many kilometres away because it was the only bed available?
And how does a village operator manage the financial question? They are likely not being paid adequately to support the person in the home while exposing themselves to mounting regulatory and criminal risks.
This is happening today, especially with dementia and especially with operators marketing that they will provide a care pathway, when what they mean is they will organise other home care operators to provide that support.
As a moral responsibility and legal protection, operators will need to enhance staff training and professional systems - and strategies to support the residents and at the same time, protect their business case.
As CBRE concludes, “Australia is set for an aged care supply crisis”.
