The Government is under fire over the increasing demand for home care – but the reality is that no one can fight against the “rising tide of Baby Boomers”.
In recent weeks, the Albanese Government has been under growing pressure over the increasing number of older Australians waiting for Home Care Packages – now 68,000-plus strong.
As we report in today’s issue, home care operators point to ACAT waiting times and chronic workforce shortages among drivers behind the increased demand over the past 12 months.
But the simpler answer is – simply – demographics.
According to the ABS, the number of people aged 85-89 in Australia was projected to climb from around 348,000 in 2023 to about 364,600 in 2024.
That is another 16,400 people joining this cohort in the last year alone.
This figure is expected to climb by 274,000 people to around 638,000 over the next decade.
In short, demand will far exceed the current supply of Packages unless there is a shift to uncap supply – a measure recommended by the Royal Commission into Aged Care Quality and Safety that was ruled out by the previous Government and is unlikely to happen given the sector’s resourcing challenges.
Demand for beds set to double
Worryingly, the older Australians who miss out on home care services will likely have nowhere else to go for care in the near future.
KPMG’s latest Aged Care Market Analysis 2024 reveals that the number of Australians aged 65 and over accessing residential aged care in FY23 was 6.5%.
Based on our back-of-envelope calculations using the ABS data, that’s around 377,000 people that could potentially be looking for an aged care bed in 2034, up from around 190,000 aged care residents today.
Given the sector only added a net 1,500 beds in FY22-23 and there are currently few incentives for operators to build more, many Mums and Dads will miss out.
The expectation of course is that in the coming years, more older Australians will have access to home care – but that is only a viable solution if the workforce and funding is available.
Hospitals will also not provide a stop-gap.
As we cover this week, a number of State and Territory hospital systems are already operating at capacity with NSW the latest to seek to divert patients away from its emergency departments.
As Minister for Aged Care, Anika Wells, predicted in 2022, the “rising tide” is here – will the sector sink or swim?
More on this in next week’s issue.