Simon Miller said in 2023 we are the Titanic heading towards the iceberg. In 2024 he said it is too late; we are crashing and we will sink. He is right.
As CEO of Anglicare Sydney, he was speaking at our LEADERS SUMMIT both years and he was referring to the ability of the home and residential aged care system’s capacity to cope with future demand.
No new aged care beds are being built, workforce scarcity, full hospitals. And the worst is now upon us.
Check the graph above. The red line is today. The number of people hitting 80 every year will increase by 15,000, rapidly building to 40,000 every year between now and 2050, which is 36 years from now with this growth.
Cumulatively, if these frail people are living an average of 4 years to 84, we do not have physical accommodation for 45,000 people next year, rising to 160,000 people by 2030. Better medicines will just make this worse.
So they will be at home, mostly alone, and scared. (This is why home care package wait times have blown out to 12 months despite an increase from 59,900 packages in 2013 to 278,000 in 2024).
Why are we going over this old ground? Because, as Simon Miller says, in 12 months it has got a whole lot worse; look at hospital beds, or lack of.
The Titanic is today and the inn is full, so all these extra people are going to be in their homes, in retirement villages, in land lease communities, and there is not enough qualified care workers to support them in these homes.
This is a significant, rising challenge for village operators.
Technology, telehealth and Hospital in the Home will respond and be with us at scale within say 24 months. Check out Australian Unity. Are you ready?
DCM Group Editor Chris Baynes and Anglicare Sydney CEO Simon Miller at LEADERS SUMMIT 2024
